Circle’s Meteoric Rise : Can CRCL Sustain Its Stablecoin - Fueled Rally?

Circle Internet Group's (CRCL) phenomenal rally 

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) has delivered one of the most stunning post-IPO performances in recent memory. Since debuting on June 5 at $31 per share, the stock has soared over 670%, recently closing above $237.60. In just the past week, it gained 83.2%, vastly outpacing the broader market. Behind this meteoric rise is the Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act—a landmark bill to regulate stablecoins—and Circle’s central role as the sole issuer of USDC, one of the most widely adopted dollar-backed digital assets.

The Genius Act

The GENIUS Act, still pending in the House, would establish a federal framework for stablecoins and require issuers to hold 1:1 reserves in cash or short-term Treasurys. Circle, already in compliance with such standards, stands to benefit tremendously from the increased trust and adoption this legislation could bring. President Trump’s endorsement of the bill further catalyzed investor enthusiasm, signaling strong political support for integrating stablecoins into traditional finance.

Circle's Relationship and Future

Circle’s relationship with Coinbase, which holds a minority stake and receives a share of USDC revenue, has also drawn attention. With Coinbase shares up 27% in the past week and Circle earning institutional praise from Seaport Research and ARK Invest, CRCL has quickly become a favorite among investors looking to capitalize on regulatory tailwinds in crypto. 

Still, investors must tread carefully. Circle’s current market cap exceeds $60 billion on roughly $1.7 billion in annual revenue, implying a valuation north of 35x trailing sales. While the potential upside is large, especially if Circle’s payment infrastructure sees widespread adoption, this growth is already partially priced in. Any delay in the GENIUS Act’s passage or softening of institutional momentum could trigger a sharp pullback. Furthermore, a significant portion of Circle’s earnings comes from interest on reserves—income that may decline if the Fed lowers rates later this year. Roughly half of the revenue is also shared with Coinbase, making Circle’s bottom line partly dependent on a third party’s strategy and scale.

Longterm Outlook

Circle’s long-term outlook remains promising, especially if stablecoins become foundational to global financial flows. But after a 670% run-up, new investors should be cautious. The upside case depends not just on regulatory success but on execution, adoption, and macro conditions. CRCL may still have room to grow, but the path forward will likely be more volatile and less one-directional than its first two weeks suggest. For investors with long horizons and high conviction in the regulated crypto narrative, Circle may still be worth the risk, just not without careful timing and risk management.