US stocks mostly edged higher on Friday, marking a fresh start for the markets in 2026 after a strong performance in the previous year. Wall Street is coming off its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gaining about 0.6% and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) increasing by 0.2%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) struggled, dipping slightly below the flat line, even as semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Micron (MU) reported gains. However, Tesla (TSLA) shares fell sharply after the electric vehicle manufacturer’s deliveries missed expectations.
The markets are transitioning from a year marked by substantial gains to a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. The S&P 500 rose over 16% and the Nasdaq Composite led gains with a 20% jump in 2025. Analysts are hopeful about a continued upward trend, with every Wall Street forecaster tracked by Bloomberg expecting stocks to rally for a fourth consecutive year, although risks remain at the forefront, particularly concerning the AI sector and economic stability.
Inflation concerns, economic surprises, and President Trump's impending decision on tariffs will be critical factors to watch this month as they could significantly impact market direction.
Gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) opened strong in 2026, building on their impressive performances from last year, their best since 1979. Gold reached as high as 1.9% before stabilizing near $4,330 per troy ounce, while silver hovered just below $72 per ounce. Additionally, aluminum (ALI=F) crossed the $3,000 per ton mark for the first time since 2022.
The much-anticipated 'Santa Claus rally' – the last five trading days of December plus the first two of January – has been underwhelming this year. Currently, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1% during this traditional bullish period.
Taking center stage soon will be the Federal Reserve, with anticipated divisions within the central bank likely to continue. President Trump is expected to announce a new chair to replace Jerome Powell later this month. Analysts expect the Fed to maintain interest rates stable in its January meeting, although views on March's meeting remain split.
The notable stocks in the tech sector today include Microsoft (MSFT), which fell by 2%, and Tesla (TSLA), which declined more than 2% due to disappointing vehicle delivery figures. On a brighter note, Tesla's competition in the EV market remains robust with rising interest in AI technologies.
One story to follow is the potential for M&A activity, as speculation surrounds OpenAI’s interest in acquiring Pinterest (PINS), driving shares of the latter up over 3%. Additionally, upcoming IPOs for familiar names like SpaceX and Anthropic are creating excitement for the year ahead.
Overall, the first trading day of 2026 indicates cautious optimism among investors, with many leaning towards further market gains despite the noted challenges ahead.